Climate Risk Assessment 2028/29
Which consequences of climate change will be particularly severe in Germany, and how well are we prepared? According to the Climate Adaptation Act, a climate risk analysis must examine these questions every eight years. The analysis provides scientific evidence for setting priorities in politics and updating the German Adaptation Strategy (DAS). In order to do so, the project team is building on the 2021 Climate Impact and Risk Analysis and further developing the methodology. The researchers identify climate risks relevant to the individual action fields of the DAS and examine how these will develop by the middle and end of the century. In doing so, they consider different manifestations of climate change as well as various socio-economic developments.
The research team is investigating how adaptation measures can reduce climate risks. In addition to climate adaptation measures that have already been adopted, the researchers are also examining the alleviating potential of further and transformative measures. The adaptation measures are categorized according to different dimensions, such as knowledge, financial resources, or legal frameworks, and evaluated based on specific criteria. The researchers combine individual measures into policy mixes. For this, they examine whether measures are coherent, reinforce one another, or conflict with one another.
In an integrated analysis, the researchers synthesize the findings. They identify the action fields, climate impacts, and regions where climate risks are particularly high, and derive policy recommendations from these findings. Furthermore, they evaluate the results in terms of overarching aspects such as the significance of climate risks for vulnerable groups, the issue of climate justice and socio-economic distributional effects, or the potential for cascade effects.
Assessing climate risks cannot be fully objectified due to existing uncertainties and the lack of clear thresholds. Therefore, the project team works closely with the Climate Change and Adaptation Network of German Government Agencies, which conducts the necessary normative assessments of climate risks.
The project team utilizes literature reviews as well as expert interviews and workshops. The results will be presented to policymakers, administration, businesses, civil society, and the scientific community in the form of scientific reports, a peer-reviewed article, a policy paper and an interactive graphic.
