This expert report by the IÖW and the Öko-Institut, commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Economics in August 1986, examines the short- and long-term consequences of a nuclear phase-out in the Federal Republic of Germany. The immediate impetus was the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which lent new urgency to the energy policy debate.

The authors conclude that a short-term phase-out within one year is technically feasible. Existing overcapacities in the electricity grid would ensure sufficient reserves. More problematic in the short term is the projected rise in nitrogen oxide and CO₂ emissions resulting from increased use of fossil fuel power plants. The additional economic costs are considered manageable, as most existing calculations rest on inflated assumptions – particularly regarding the service life and decommissioning costs of nuclear power plants.

A medium-term phase-out by the early 1990s appears even less problematic technically. For the 1995 scenario, the authors demonstrate that under adjusted framework conditions – stagnating electricity consumption, expanded combined heat and power generation, and greater use of renewable energy sources – even an increase in CO₂ emissions can be avoided, while sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions would fall dramatically compared to 1985 levels. Taking into account potential innovation and efficiency gains, a medium-term phase-out would likely yield more positive economic outcomes overall than continuing the nuclear programme.

No statistically significant correlation between a high share of nuclear energy and low electricity prices can be established at the international level. The study highlights the considerable potential of energy conservation, combined heat and power, and renewable energy sources as economically attractive alternatives. A swift phase-out is preferred over a long-term one, as it generates stronger innovation impulses and better addresses the risks inherent in nuclear energy.