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CORPUS Discussion Paper 3 on Scenario Development for Sustainable Mobility

This paper provides background information for the third CORPUS “Policy meets Research” workshop on sustainable mobility. Mobility is a key challenge for the greening of consumption and production patterns. But mobility is a complex socio-ecological system surrounded by unpredictable events and uncertainties. In order to deal with this, scenario planning is increasingly applied. Scenarios can either be descriptive models or normative narratives about different paths that might be taken in the future. The paper provides a short summary of the use of scenarios in evidence-based policy making. It reviews a couple of recent examples of scenario building approaches in the sustainable mobility domain, herewith we distinguish local/regional, national and European scenario approaches. The potential roles and applications of different types of scenarios such as backcasting or quantitative models and their benefit for policy making are discussed. The focus thereby is on relocalised lifestyles, slow mobility and shared space, fluid public transport, true-prices / internalisation, distant quality interactions and sharing mobility services.